The hottest plastic cost and demand can't compete

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Plastic costs and demand cannot compete without rising

although the current demand in the plastic market has not substantially improved, the international oil price continues to operate above $80, which has great potential to explore $90. The US dollar is sorted up and down around 80. From the recent trend, the US dollar has a medium-term weakening trend

the price of plastic, which had been in the cowhide market in the early stage, was also driven by the rise in oil prices. It couldn't stand loneliness and began to attack 12000. As far as the current situation is concerned, with the gradual digestion of resources and the reduction of inbound volume in the late stage of the outer market, the pressure on market resources has been significantly relieved. However, due to the downturn in demand, it has significantly suppressed the market. At present, the economy is gradually recovering, and the trend of crude oil will still be a slow upward process, with obvious support and promotion on the cost side. Recently, Sinopec South China and PetroChina South China PE have successively made a low settlement on the listing price since the beginning of April, and then basically continued to be listed and sold at the original listing price. At the same time, the upstream crude oil and ethylene prices are also at a high level, which makes the cost support of PE market in South China remain strong, and the market mentality positioning is not accurate, which is generally stable. However, terminal demand has not recovered significantly, and it has basically maintained a cautious approach of buying on demand, while traders have also maintained a fast in and fast out. On the whole, the current cost support from upstream crude oil and ethylene is strong, the two giants' prices are stable and their inventories are average, but the overall inventory pressure is slightly high and terminal demand has not seen a large volume, so the market is still stable, with slight fluctuations in some parts

from the perspective of supply and demand, the total import of PE in February 2010 was 563700 tons, a month on month decrease of 23.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.83% in February last year (654100 tons). Among them, the import of LDPE was 126200 tons, a month on month decrease of 17.25%, an increase of 8.79% year on year, and the import of HDPE was 259800 tons. The maintenance of universal testing machine mainly includes the maintenance of host machine, oil source and control system: a decrease of 28.45%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.27%, and the import of LLDPE was 177700 tons, a month on month decrease of 21.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 21.99%. Due to the sluggish downstream demand in the early stage of domestic plastic enterprises, imports also decreased, so it is expected to continue to rise after the market digests a certain amount of social inventory

as of March 31, 2010, the total inventory of domestic PP and PE major markets increased by 1.92% compared with the end of February. Among them, PP inventory increased significantly, with an increase of 3.79% compared with the end of last month, and PE inventory increased slightly, with an increase of 1.37% compared with the end of last month. Regionally, the inventory in the South increased significantly, with an increase of 3.86% compared with the end of last month, while the inventory in the North decreased significantly, with a decrease of 2.08% compared with the end of last month

with the rise of oil price, the early supply of Sinopec/PetroChina region has been settled successively, and the new price has increased in a small range; The transaction situation has improved. At the same time, the current spot price gap has expanded, as shown in the figure below. It is expected that the spot price will follow up driven by the spot price

on the whole, petrochemicals generally raised the ex factory price this week. Although the international oil price callback, the market bullish atmosphere remained unchanged. Today, warehouse receipts, futures and spot goods all rose to varying degrees, and the market speculation atmosphere is getting stronger

as the upstream raw material of plastics - oil, since mid February this year, due to the positive global economic recovery and other factors, the demand for oil has increased, and the oil price in the international market has risen continuously. After March, it has basically remained above $80 per barrel. On April 6, the closing price of WTI crude oil futures was 86 per barrel US $84, the highest level in nearly a year and a half. In terms of demand, the demand of emerging countries is still growing, while the demand of developed countries has been restrained, but it has not decreased significantly; On supply side, global oil production capacity has not been expanded in recent years. "The country with the highest dependence on oil in the world is the United States, reaching 62%. If China's external dependence increases by 2% every year, China's external dependence on oil will exceed that of the United States, close to 65%, which is very dangerous. For China, the external dependence on oil should be controlled at 50%, and 62% must become a warning line." For domestic plastic enterprises, the revitalization and development of the industry has a long way to go. The era of high oil prices and high costs will inevitably come, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for domestic enterprises

in a word, the plastic bulls finally fired the first shot of the spring market to the air force. It is expected that in the short term, the bulls will consolidate the rear defense line near 12000 to prevent the air force from sneak attacks. Once the defense attack is consolidated, the horn of launching a band general attack to the air force will sound, and all parties will be overwhelming, making the air force scared. And the cost driven price rise will bathe commodity prices in the ocean of inflation. Liansu 1009 contract continues to fluctuate after 11400-11700, and it is expected to continue to launch control system software, which is an upward trend for Windows XP operating system platform. Strategic multiple orders can be appropriately involved in the current position, and fund management and risk control must be done well. Of course, pay attention to the pressure of the 12000 psychological level. Ordinary investment actively connects with high-end market demanders, who need to patiently wait for an upward breakthrough and appropriately intervene in multiple orders. A good hunter must wait first. Below break 11550 as stop loss reference

for plastic consumption enterprises, taking the opportunity to buy hedging at the current price will play a positive role in the cost control of the enterprise itself

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